Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch by Quamrul Ashraf and Oded Galor. Published in volume , issue 5, pages of American Economic. This paper empirically tests the predictions of the Malthusian theory with respect to both population dynamics and income per capita stagnation. This paper examines the central hypothesis of the influential Malthusian theory, according to which improvements in the technological environment during the.

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In inn transportation sector, the index is assigned a value of 0 under the absence of tthe vehicles and pack or draft animals, a value of 1 under the presence of only pack or draft animals, and a value of 2 under the presence of both. Crafts Nicholas, Mills Terence C. For instance, comparing the IV coefficient estimates on the transition-timing variable across Tables 2 — malthusiabthe positive causal impact of the Neolithic Revolution on population density diminishes by 0.

To account for the technology-diffusion channel, the current analysis employs as a control variable the great-circle distance from the capital city of a country to the closest of eight worldwide regional technological frontiers.

In the industrial sector, the index is assigned a value of 0 under the absence of both metalworks and pottery, a value of 1 under the presence of only pottery, and a value of 2 under the presence of both.


Historical population estimates are provided for regions corresponding to either individual countries or, in some cases, to sets comprised of 2—3 neighboring countries e. Klein Lecture — Comparative Economic Development: For additional details, the reader is referred to Ashraf and Galor This section demonstrates the significant positive effects of maltnusian productivity and the level of technological advancement, as proxied by the timing of the Neolithic Revolution, on population density in the years CE and 1 CE.

Thus, for instance, while statistical significance remains unaffected across specifications, the independent effects of Neolithic transition timing and land productivity from the first two columns in each table increase slightly in magnitude when both channels are examined concurrently in Column 3, and remain stable thereafter when subjected to the additional geographical controls in the baseline regression specification of the fourth column.

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The estimated coefficients on the transition-timing and land-productivity variables remain highly statistically significant and continue to retain their anf signs, while increasing slightly in magnitude in comparison to their estimates in earlier columns.

EconPapers: Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch

Journal of Economic Growth. For the CE analysis, the additional sampling bias introduced on OLS estimates by moving to the IV-restricted subsample in Column 5 is similar to that observed earlier in Table 2whereas the bias appears somewhat larger for the analysis in 1 CE. While the results revealing the cross-country neutrality of income per stagnatioh, despite differences in aggregate productivity, are fully consistent with Malthusian predictions, there may exist potential concerns regarding the quality of the income per capita data employed by the current analysis.

The regressions in Table 7 therefore omit the timing of the Neolithic Revolution as an explanatory variable for both population density and income per capita in the two periods examined. Handbook of Economic Growth.

Lectures on Economic Growth. Search for items with the same title.

Bibliographic data for series maintained by Stephen Sheppard. Population, Food, and Knowledge: The findings demonstrate that the effects of the Neolithic epoc, land-productivity, and spatial technology-diffusion channels on population density are indeed not spuriously driven by these additional climatological factors. Thus, the analysis adopts an instrumental variables strategy, exploiting variation in the numbers of prehistoric domesticable species of plants and animals that were native to a region prior to the onset of sedentary agricultural practices as exogenous sources of variation for the number of years elapsed since the Neolithic Revolution to demonstrate its causal effect on population density in the Common Era.

NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. Malthuslan section demonstrates the qualitative robustness of the results, regarding the significant positive effect of technology, as proxied by the timing of the Neolithic Revolution, on population density, but its neutrality for income per capita, under direct measures of technological advancement.


Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch

Finally, regressions 5 and 6 represent the first stage of regressions 3 and 6respectively, in Table 9. National Center for Biotechnology InformationU. Finally, Columns 3 and 6 establish the causal effect of the Neolithic Revolution on the level of non-agricultural technological sophistication in the two time periods, employing the prehistoric availability of domesticable species of plants and animals as instruments for the timing of the Neolithic transition.

Log Communications Technology in: Given that historical population estimates are also available from Maddisonalbeit for a smaller set of countries than McEvedy and JonesTable D. Such a theory would also imply, however, that increases in the level of technology in any given region should generate increases in the standard of living in all regions.

Human Metabolism and the Origins of Agriculture. Percentage of Land within km of Dynamiccs or River.


However, while geographical factors certainly continued to play a direct role in economic development after the onset of agriculture, it is malhhusian that the availability of prehistoric domesticable wild plant and animal species did not influence population density in the Common Era other than through the timing of the Neolithic Revolution.

The most comprehensive worldwide cross-country historical estimates of population and income per capita since the year 1 CE have been assembled by Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones and Angus Maddison respectively.

From Malthus to Solow: Similarly, a decline in the population due to an epidemic such as the Black Death — CE would temporarily reduce population, while temporarily increasing income per capita.